Mon, Nov 29, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 213 | 110 | 433 |
| CAR | 012 | 15 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:46DALSteve OttGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 4:19DALJames NealAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Slap, 0.39 xG3–0
- P2 7:57CAREric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 3:21DALJamie BennAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:50DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:34DALJeff Woywitka: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:16CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:24DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:57CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32DALJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32CARTuomo Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:06CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:49DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:24DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:24DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:24CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:24DALAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:24CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:13
xG 0.91–0.09 (91%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:53
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell6:20
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish6:52
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann11:27
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen12:51
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley14:27
xG 0.69–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBodie – Tlusty – Carter7:17
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal3:49
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal4:47
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter8:45
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – McBain4:47
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain3:13
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison2:20
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).