Tue, Nov 30, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 017 | 112 | 29 | 11 | 439 |
| TOR | 17 | 113 | 15 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25TORKris VersteegAssists: Tyler Bozak, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:18TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Simon Gagne · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:51TORNikolay KuleminPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 7:23TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Joey Crabb, Mike Komisarek · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 8:25TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:51TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:15TBLSimon GagneGWGAssists: Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:54TORMike Komisarek: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:01TORKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16TORNikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:50TORNikolay Kulemin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09TBLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:36TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58TBLRandy Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:15TORNikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:07TBLRandy Jones: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Moore – Bergenheim2:02
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell5:51
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos11:43
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gagne – Moore – Purcell2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman9:52
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ohlund – Lundin9:32
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Kubina2:42
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Grabovski – Kulemin9:56
xG 0.83–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Sjostrom – Versteeg – Bozak8:15
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orr – Brent – Brown2:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn13:08
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek12:35
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).