Tue, Nov 30, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 213 | 17 | 529 |
| SJS | 115 | 16 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 8:01DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brian Rafalski, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 9:35SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:58DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Brian Rafalski, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 4:52SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Jamie McGinn, Derek Joslin · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 19:49DETPatrick EavesGWGAssists: Daniel Cleary, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 7:55DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 17:28SJSRyane CloweAssists: Justin Braun, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:36SJSJamal Mayers: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:19DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:54SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:50DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 13:01SJSScott Nichol: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:01SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg5:55
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Hudler – Miller – Abdelkader2:43
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Eaves – Helm2:57
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg7:13
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson14:22
xG 1.04–0.26 (80%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Salei – Kronwall15:18
xG 0.75–0.88 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Lidstrom – Stuart14:08
xG 0.24–0.61 (29%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Heatley – Clowe11:35
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – Ferriero7:46
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley3:05
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy4:27
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun8:17
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Murray – Joslin2:18
xG 0.63–0.08 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic8:35
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).