Wed, Dec 1, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 7, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 216 | 18 | 412 | 736 |
| CGY | 19 | 15 | 06 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00VANMason RaymondAssists: Andrew Alberts, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:51VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Alexander Edler, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 10:01CGYTim JackmanAssists: Mark Giordano, Cory Sarich · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 3:05VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 6:22CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 1:03VANMason RaymondSHAssists: Manny Malhotra · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 6:16VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 15:37VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 17:56VANDan HamhuisPPAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Raffi Torres · Snap, 0.31 xG7–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:02VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:02CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:42CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:40CGYTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
- P2 0:40VANRaffi Torres: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:30CGYMikael Backlund: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 14:06CGYCurtis Glencross: Cross checking5 min
- P2 14:06CGYCurtis Glencross: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:32VANKeith Ballard: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:05CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:02CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 17:07CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:07VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Raymond7:00
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows6:18
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Burrows – Hansen2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin3:19
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler10:37
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa9:52
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Alberts – Ballard11:16
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman4:35
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Moss – Glencross – Bourque5:56
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan9:45
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Hagman – Backlund6:55
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Giordano9:09
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Babchuk – Mikkelson10:17
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Regehr – Bouwmeester11:09
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).