Thu, Dec 2, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 010 | 114 | 138 |
| DAL | 07 | 18 | 16 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:29DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P3 10:18WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Mike Green, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:38DALBrandon SegalGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:41DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:41WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:00DALMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 6:54WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:47WSHJeff Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12WSHScott Hannan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:44WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33DALJeff Woywitka: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:22DALMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52WSHMatt Hendricks: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Fehr – Johansson7:34
xG 0.65–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:10
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Laich2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Semin6:59
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green13:15
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine9:54
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:43
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPetersen – Ott – Burish7:06
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Barch – Segal – Wandell2:12
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal10:53
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:58
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann14:16
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen10:26
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley13:18
xG 0.10–0.91 (10%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).