Sat, Dec 4, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 012 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 227 |
| TOR | 112 | 014 | 112 | 02 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48BOSNathan HortonUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:53TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:08BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Tyler Seguin, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:18TORKris VersteegPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Nazem Kadri scored
- 2. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 3. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 4. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 5. TOR Phil Kessel scored
- 6. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:40TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:40TORJay Rosehill: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:40BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:40BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:53BOSGregory Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:30TORClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:28BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:12TORMike Komisarek: Kneeing2 min
- P3 17:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 4:36BOSJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kessel won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:36
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Wheeler10:57
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Seguin8:53
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand9:31
xG 0.22–0.88 (20%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk10:30
xG 0.70–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart6:55
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Stuart2:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Bozak – Kadri4:25
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:46
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Armstrong – Versteeg – Kessel16:14
xG 1.12–1.05 (51%)attempts 19–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn14:58
xG 1.12–0.36 (76%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn2:27
xG 0.09–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson10:24
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).