Sat, Dec 4, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 09 | 213 | 111 | 333 |
| WSH | 015 | 120 | 011 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:57ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 9:29ATLAlexander BurmistrovGWGAssists: Nik Antropov, Ben Eager · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 19:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Alexander Semin, John Carlson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:27ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:58ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03WSHDavid Steckel: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:43ATLAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:16ATLDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:19WSHDavid Steckel: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:19ATLJim Slater: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:19WSHDavid Steckel: Kneeing2 min
- P3 8:44ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:43ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Slater – Stapleton5:28
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Antropov – Eager – Burmistrov9:08
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Stewart – Little9:49
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors11:06
xG 0.47–0.75 (38%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien11:48
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Oduya – Bogosian13:59
xG 0.35–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian2:23
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Hendricks – Fehr2:14
xG 0.35–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Fehr6:38
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:05
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Knuble – Laich – Johansson3:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green12:10
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Hannan – Sloan9:42
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Hannan – Alzner3:15
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).