Sun, Dec 5, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 09 | 210 | 327 |
| NYI | 04 | 015 | 211 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42PHIMatt CarleAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Mike Richards · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 5:12NYIJon SimAssists: PA Parenteau, Rob Schremp · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 5:48NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:34PHIAndreas NodlPPAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 14:16PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Ville Leino, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:03PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:39NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:00NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:24NYIRob Schremp: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:34PHIMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P2 13:06PHIAndreas Nodl: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 9:37NYIMatt Moulson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:51PHIVille Leino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk8:08
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Carter – Giroux3:28
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:50
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Shelley – Betts – Powe2:00
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle10:42
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Coburn – Carle2:54
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Coburn3:30
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Comeau – Tavares6:32
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Sim – Parenteau – Schremp4:38
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau2:37
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Joensuu – Grabner11:03
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:17
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Hillen9:49
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Eaton – Martinek12:03
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).