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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 5, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Calgary Flames 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY2808010226
CHI31301118432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:14CHIBryan BickellPPAssists: Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:21CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:06CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Rene Bourque, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:28CGYAnton BabchukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P1 17:33CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:45CHIDave BollandENAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–4
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 3:03CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:27CGYAles Kotalik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P1 10:08CGYDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 12:11CHIViktor Stalberg: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  5. P1 16:00CHIJeremy Morin: Boarding2 min · PPG
  6. P1 16:49CGYDavid Moss: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:48CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 9:56CHITomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 9:56CGYSteve Staios: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 13:43CHINick Boynton: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 16:33CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 16:33CGYSteve Staios: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 17:49CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 5:56CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 8:28CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  16. P3 8:51CHIBrent Seabrook: High sticking double minor4 min
  17. P3 14:22CHIDave Bolland: Holding2 min
  18. P3 16:11CHIJake Dowell: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 18:12CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
47% to win53% to win
← CGY attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCHI
26Shots on goal32
2.2Expected goals3.9
50Shot attempts61
28Faceoffs won45
8Power plays9
25Penalty minutes23
29Hits26
13Blocked shots13
3Giveaways8
11Takeaways16

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestKotalik – Moss – Glencross2:06

    xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  2. Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman4:40

    xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Moss – Glencross – Bourque3:21

    xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  4. Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan8:40

    xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRegehr – Babchuk2:25

    xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  2. Sarich – Regehr7:31

    xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Staios – Bouwmeester5:57

    xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestSkille – Stalberg – Toews3:58

    xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0

  2. Bolland – Bickell – Brouwer7:23

    xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Sharp – Stalberg – Toews2:44

    xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  4. Dowell – Skille – Scott4:23

    xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKeith – Seabrook12:44

    xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0

  2. Campbell – Hjalmarsson11:16

    xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0

  3. Cullimore – Boynton6:31

    xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.9 xGCGY 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHICGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #415 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).