Sun, Dec 5, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 110 | 18 | 328 |
| VAN | 17 | 19 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13STLAlexander SteenAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:55VANJannik HansenAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Keith Ballard · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:55STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Eric Brewer, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 7:05VANKevin BieksaAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:11STLAlexander SteenGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:58STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 1:58STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:58VANKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:58STLStefan Della Rovere: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:40VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:04VANAlexandre Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:00STLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:13VANDaniel Sedin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:49STLMatt D'Agostini: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:52STLDavid Backes: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:32VANMikael Samuelsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Crombeen – Berglund5:51
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini7:53
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Boyes – Backes – Sobotka8:44
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Scatchard – Janssen – Della Rovere2:36
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo10:31
xG 0.95–0.20 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Brewer – Cole12:53
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Jackman – Johnson3:34
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPerrault – Bolduc – Glass3:03
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Hansen6:48
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin2:21
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:35
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ballard – Rome6:13
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler12:21
xG 0.19–0.46 (30%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:30
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).