Mon, Dec 6, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 15 | 18 | 00 | 1 | 218 |
| CBJ | 17 | 08 | 110 | 04 | 2 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26CBJKris RussellAssists: Jakub Voracek, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 15:45DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal, Aaron Gagnon · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 7:52DALSteve OttAssists: Trevor Daley, Brandon Segal · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:13CBJRick NashPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Rick Nash scored
- 2. DAL James Neal stopped
- 3. CBJ Nikita Filatov stopped
- 4. DAL Brad Richards scored
- 5. CBJ Kyle Wilson scored
- 6. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:01CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:27DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:30CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
- P2 1:31CBJRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:09CBJMarc Methot: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:34DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:10DALKarlis Skrastins: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn11:37
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish7:28
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Sutherby – Gagnon – Wandell5:27
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal14:00
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen10:14
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Skrastins3:15
xG 0.06–0.10 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Daley2:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Boll – Brassard7:19
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Nash – Voracek9:47
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Umberger – Wilson – Filatov8:12
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Methot14:03
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Commodore – Hejda2:10
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman14:35
xG 0.39–0.50 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).