Thu, Dec 9, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 28 | 19 | 329 |
| BUF | 19 | 218 | 310 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:48BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 13:26BUFJason PominvilleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 15:50SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 19:15SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Logan Couture, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 0:31BUFCody McCormickGWGAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 9:26SJSDouglas MurrayAssists: Torrey Mitchell · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:33BUFPaul GaustadENAssists: Cody McCormick, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
- P3 19:51BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:32BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:25SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min
- P2 12:13BUFLuke Adam: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:14BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Ferriero – Couture13:13
xG 1.02–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Mitchell – McCarthy11:09
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley16:13
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Mayers – Nichol – McGinn4:36
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Braun11:49
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers15:12
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Boyle – Murray19:25
xG 0.61–0.97 (39%)attempts 21–15goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGrier – Gaustad – McCormick13:00
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Roy – Vanek – Gerbe13:13
xG 0.80–0.65 (55%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Kaleta2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Ennis2:05
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers16:03
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Butler – Weber16:09
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Leopold – Montador18:05
xG 0.44–0.95 (31%)attempts 14–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).