Fri, Dec 10, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 07 | 117 | 03 | 0 | 341 |
| EDM | 17 | 29 | 01 | 06 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03TBLRandy JonesUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:37EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Dustin Penner, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:48TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 5:46EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan O'Marra · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 16:30EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Linus Omark, Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 11:33TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Pavel Kubina · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. TBL Marc-Antoine Pouliot stopped
- 3. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 4. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 5. EDM Linus Omark scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:20EDMColin Fraser: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:36TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:49EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:46EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:48TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48EDMKurtis Foster: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:44TBLPavel Kubina: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:44EDMDustin Penner: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44TBLPavel Kubina: Boarding2 min
- OT 4:00EDMGilbert Brule: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Moore – Bergenheim11:45
xG 1.19–0.08 (94%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Pouliot – Stamkos5:17
xG 0.70–0.07 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos4:21
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Purcell – Harju2:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones12:38
xG 1.22–0.12 (91%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Ohlund – Lundin13:13
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman10:52
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall10:22
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Brule6:47
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Penner – Cogliano – Paajarvi9:25
xG 0.15–0.60 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Jones – O'Marra – Omark8:57
xG 0.00–1.04 (0%)attempts 1–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Foster – Smid11:08
xG 0.04–0.57 (6%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Whitney13:56
xG 0.27–1.00 (21%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham15:38
xG 0.35–1.51 (19%)attempts 6–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).