Sat, Dec 11, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 05 | 311 | 524 |
| BUF | 114 | 012 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Craig Adams · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:31PITArron AshamAssists: Max Talbot · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 15:49BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–1
- P3 12:09PITAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 13:00BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 16:43PITMike RuppAssists: Dustin Jeffrey · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:17PITMatt CookeENAssists: Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:12BUFAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:53PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:45PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:23PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:49PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:49PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:49BUFJason Pominville: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:14PITMarc-Andre Fleury: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:34BUFSteve Montador: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:47BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:47BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:47PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:24PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 6:51BUFThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:03BUFNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:03PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Jeffrey4:44
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Asham – Cooke – Talbot6:35
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu6:36
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:04
xG 0.11–0.72 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek9:16
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek2:12
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy6:47
xG 0.36–0.42 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGrier – Gaustad – McCormick5:36
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Gerbe5:43
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Hecht – Kaleta – Ennis4:58
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Gerbe2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers11:17
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Butler – Weber8:45
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador13:44
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).