Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 110 | 09 | 123 |
| TOR | 211 | 03 | 110 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 10:35TORTomas KaberleGWGAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 14:38MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:22TORKris VersteegENAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:59TORClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59MTLJaroslav Spacek: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59TORClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59MTLJaroslav Spacek: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26MTLJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
- P1 18:30MTLJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
- P3 0:23MTLRoman Hamrlik: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Halpern
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Halpern – Pouliot5:50
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn9:40
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller4:27
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn3:49
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Weber15:12
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek4:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Picard – Subban11:36
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Kessel – Bozak13:34
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Versteeg – Kadri7:17
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:46
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf20:30
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 18–28goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn15:22
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Schenn2:05
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).