Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 211 | 18 | 14 | 423 |
| NJD | 013 | 012 | 19 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 1:42DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 11:37DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 0:39NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 10:12DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:24DETDrew Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:33NJDJason Arnott: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:37DETPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:05DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:05NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:18DETNiklas Kronwall: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:13NJDAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:43DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:59NJDColin White: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:23DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen9:38
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg10:40
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm9:02
xG 0.78–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader4:02
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall15:22
xG 0.91–0.17 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson10:44
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart10:32
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Langenbrunner – Elias – Zajac8:50
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Mair – Pelley – Vasyunov5:19
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Arnott – Zubrus – Kovalchuk12:45
xG 0.18–0.66 (21%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Rolston – Clarkson – Tedenby8:42
xG 0.26–0.83 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Volchenkov – Greene5:03
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- White – Tallinder17:06
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene11:54
xG 0.21–0.90 (19%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).