Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Atlanta Thrashers 5, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 08 | 117 | 410 | 535 |
| NYI | 111 | 16 | 212 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:53NYIMatt MartinAssists: Blake Comeau, Rob Schremp · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 2:44NYIMatt MoulsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 18:01ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Brent Sopel · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:45ATLJohnny OduyaAssists: Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 7:03ATLJohnny OduyaAssists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 9:15NYIRob SchrempAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 11:35ATLBryan LittleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 14:16ATLAlexander BurmistrovGWGAssists: Brent Sopel · Tip-in, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 18:44NYIBlake ComeauPPAssists: Rob Schremp, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.25 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:10ATLNik Antropov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:56ATLRich Peverley: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:03NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding2 min
- P2 4:22NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:22NYIJesse Joensuu: Holding2 min
- P2 19:51ATLToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 3:34NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:49ATLDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:59NYIJohn Tavares: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:59NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:59ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 16:57ATLAnthony Stewart: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane8:47
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Peverley2:11
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater5:25
xG 0.04–0.18 (19%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Ladd – Peverley – Stapleton6:48
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian13:49
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien12:50
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Sopel – Hainsey8:56
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSim – Schremp – Comeau4:30
xG 0.63–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Martin5:10
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin3:48
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:41
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – MacDonald5:44
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Gervais – MacDonald3:10
xG 0.43–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Gervais – Hillen8:51
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).