Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 016 | 07 | 14 | 02 | 1 | 229 |
| STL | 06 | 011 | 118 | 04 | 0 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:18CARBrandon SutterAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jussi Jokinen · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 6:31STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Matt D'Agostini stopped
- 2. CAR Brandon Sutter stopped
- 3. STL Brad Boyes stopped
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 5. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 6. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:38CARIan White: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:02STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:02CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:22STLBrad Winchester: Holding2 min
- P2 16:14CARJamie McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:55CARJoe Corvo: Delaying game2 min
- P3 6:08CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:05CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Dwyer – Tlusty8:13
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Carter6:10
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Dwyer2:20
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Skinner14:15
xG 1.09–1.33 (45%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – White3:23
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain4:51
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Corvo – Gleason13:47
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Backes – Sobotka11:27
xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini8:20
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Winchester – Crombeen – Berglund4:18
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Scatchard – Janssen – Della Rovere5:21
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo14:24
xG 1.55–0.63 (71%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Johnson9:58
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Brewer – Cole9:51
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).