Sat, Dec 11, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 35 | 03 | 11 | 523 |
| VAN | 17 | 19 | 211 | 00 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:05TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Ryan Malone, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P2 1:05TBLBrett ClarkPPAssists: Dominic Moore, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:02TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mike Lundin · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 4:59VANManny MalhotraPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Cory Schneider · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 13:01TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 9:38VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Cory Schneider · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 14:13VANKeith BallardUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 0:34TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:03VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:53VANRaffi Torres: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:16TBLAdam Hall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:29TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 17:17TBLMatt Smaby: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:32TBLMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:23VANRyan Kesler: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Malone – Thompson7:26
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos9:28
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim9:43
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones8:14
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Ohlund – Lundin15:22
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 5–13goals 2–0
- Clark – Hedman12:18
xG 0.37–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Bolduc – Glass3:59
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Tambellini11:24
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen11:48
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:21
xG 0.28–1.00 (22%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestAlberts – Rome12:02
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Alberts2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ballard – Edler15:27
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).