Mon, Dec 13, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 19 | 19 | 00 | 224 |
| CGY | 211 | 06 | 05 | 13 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:25CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: Niklas Hagman, Anton Babchuk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 18:45CBJAntoine VermetteSHAssists: Andrew Murray, Mike Commodore · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 15:41CBJRick NashPPAssists: Kris Russell, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:49CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Cory Sarich · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:30CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:20CBJFedor Tyutin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:43CBJTom Sestito: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moss won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Voracek12:26
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Nash2:19
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett11:05
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Clark – Murray – Wilson7:26
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Commodore – Russell11:58
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot14:16
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Hejda18:35
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Hagman – Bourque9:10
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kotalik – Glencross – Backlund9:56
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Kostopoulos2:10
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Moss8:49
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano13:16
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Pardy13:27
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano3:33
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).