Wed, Dec 15, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 012 | 18 | 234 |
| BUF | 118 | 09 | 28 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:29BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:41BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 6:21BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Steven Kampfer · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 6:53BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Derek Roy · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:55BUFDrew StaffordPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 12:43BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:35BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:49BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:10BUFTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:16BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:28BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:04BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:43BOSShawn Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 18:22BOSMilan Lucic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSMarc Savard: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCormick won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Marchand10:49
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:59
xG 0.17–0.29 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Paille7:54
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Wheeler9:57
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Ference2:10
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:57
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid9:31
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Kaleta – Ennis7:49
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Hecht – Pominville7:00
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Roy – Vanek3:11
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Stafford2:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers13:06
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Butler – Weber10:28
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Leopold – Montador15:16
xG 0.39–0.45 (47%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).