Wed, Dec 15, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 17 | 17 | 221 |
| DET | 05 | 320 | 212 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:02DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 5:20STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Dave Scatchard, Eric Brewer · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:07DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:38DETDaniel ClearyPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
- P3 2:46DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 6:42STLBrad WinchesterPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:30DETNicklas LidstromENAssists: Daniel Cleary, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:12DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 6:32DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 10:44STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:05STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:13STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:45STLIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:46STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45DETJiri Hudler: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestScatchard – Porter – Cracknell4:35
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Steen – D'Agostini – Berglund3:18
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Berglund6:25
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini7:53
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Colaiacovo5:16
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Jackman – Strachan4:57
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Strachan8:14
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg13:18
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Cleary – Hudler – Helm8:38
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen11:35
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Abdelkader4:30
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall15:45
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Ericsson2:03
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson13:38
xG 0.83–0.64 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).