Wed, Dec 15, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 111 | 09 | 04 | 04 | 0 | 128 |
| TBL | 015 | 111 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:56ATLRich PeverleySHAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 14:18TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Randy Jones, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Sean Bergenheim stopped
- 2. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 3. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 4. ATL Andrew Ladd stopped
- 5. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 6. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
- 7. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 8. ATL Evander Kane stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:24ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:31TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:42TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:51ATLFreddy Modin: Interference2 min
- P2 6:03TBLPavel Kubina: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:09TBLSean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:52TBLRyan Malone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater10:10
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Peverley10:17
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Modin – Stapleton – Burmistrov7:56
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane12:07
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey10:45
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian2:31
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:15
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim11:06
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell3:42
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos6:58
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones10:21
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Hedman2:45
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:26
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).