Thu, Dec 16, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 116 | 27 | 017 | 13 | 443 |
| DAL | 16 | 17 | 15 | 00 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 19:09DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:26DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Brad Richards, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:03SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Dany Heatley, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:49SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Niclas Wallin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 7:56DALTom WandellAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:20SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:03DALJeff Woywitka: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:24DALToby Petersen: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:34DALAdam Burish: Charging2 min
- P1 18:35SJSJamal Mayers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35SJSJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:24DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:56DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:10DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Setoguchi – McGinn11:57
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture5:36
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley5:43
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Mitchell7:21
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Braun12:59
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Huskins – Demers15:29
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic18:52
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Wandell2:13
xG 0.14–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish3:45
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Segal – Wandell2:22
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell3:21
xG 0.01–0.05 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Grossmann15:33
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Daley17:29
xG 0.49–1.09 (31%)attempts 13–26goals 1–1
- Skrastins – Fistric11:25
xG 0.08–0.71 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).