Sun, Dec 19, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 315 | 011 | 334 |
| OTT | 29 | 011 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:55OTTChris KellyAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 0:34WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mike Knuble, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:20WSHEric FehrAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:55WSHMathieu PerreaultPPGWGAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:19WSHDavid Steckel: Interference2 min
- P1 16:00OTTMilan Michalek: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:15OTTPeter Regin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:48WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:48OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:45OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:52OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:35WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:15WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P3 19:43OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Laich – Perreault6:39
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:39
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Bradley – Chimera – Johansson5:44
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Gordon2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Green13:58
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:11
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Poti – Erskine7:50
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Regin – Shannon – Winchester6:49
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly6:30
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno8:38
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Spezza – Michalek6:09
xG 0.03–0.47 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Campoli7:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson13:28
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Kuba10:35
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).