Sun, Dec 19, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 010 | 111 | 13 | 432 |
| DET | 211 | 110 | 010 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:25DETPatrick EavesAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 13:56DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jeff Woywitka · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:57DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:43DETJohan FranzenAssists: Brian Rafalski, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 16:46DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:18DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:03DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:59DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:17DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
- P1 19:42DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P1 19:57DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:09DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P2 16:24DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:41DETRuslan Salei: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:14DALLoui Eriksson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 1:34DETBrian Rafalski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ott – Sutherby – Burish4:28
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:20
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn11:19
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell2:27
xG 0.02–0.34 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann15:54
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Woywitka – Daley17:43
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric7:45
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Eaves – Abdelkader6:53
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen11:26
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm3:51
xG 0.03–0.02 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg11:33
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall16:22
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson16:35
xG 0.65–0.52 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – Stuart11:27
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).