Sun, Dec 19, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 18 | 014 | 229 |
| COL | 18 | 215 | 05 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:54COLRyan WilsonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Craig Anderson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:58MTLAlexandre PicardPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–1
- P2 4:01COLKevin PorterAssists: Philippe Dupuis · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:12COLTJ GaliardiGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jonas Holos · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:40COLPhilippe Dupuis: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:03MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:28COLBrandon Yip: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:03MTLMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
- P2 17:12MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:00COLMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:28COLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00COLCraig Anderson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty12:03
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Darche – Lapierre – Eller7:01
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Pouliot5:57
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn10:00
xG 0.13–0.56 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Picard5:20
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gill – Gorges9:57
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban3:47
xG 0.00–0.05 (7%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMauldin – Galiardi – O'Reilly10:55
xG 1.20–0.08 (94%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Porter – Stastny5:44
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Porter – Yip – Stastny4:00
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene15:32
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Holos2:59
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Liles – O'Byrne9:31
xG 0.72–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk9:49
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).