Mon, Dec 20, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Atlanta Thrashers 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 28 | 18 | 37 | 623 |
| TOR | 013 | 111 | 216 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Ron Hainsey, Jim Slater · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 2:52ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 14:22TORJohn MitchellPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:04ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 3:04ATLAnthony StewartGWGAssists: Bryan Little · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 4:19ATLToby EnstromAssists: Bryan Little, Anthony Stewart · Snap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 12:55TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 13:10TORNikolay KuleminPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 19:35ATLAndrew LaddENAssists: Chris Thorburn, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.63 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:45TORColton Orr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34ATLJim Slater: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:07ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:46ATLToby Enstrom: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane12:23
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Peverley13:54
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Modin – Stapleton – Burmistrov9:38
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater7:59
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian13:43
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey11:10
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien2:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Kessel – Bozak15:02
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 27–13goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:45
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent8:52
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf14:25
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Schenn12:39
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson8:50
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).