Tue, Dec 21, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 09 | 210 | 223 |
| BUF | 317 | 114 | 111 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:05BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Craig Rivet, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 16:57BUFTyler EnnisPPGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 4:40BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Derek Roy, Jordan Leopold · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 15:36ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 17:03BUFCraig RivetAssists: Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 19:51ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:45ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36ANAJason Blake: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 13:36ANAJason Blake: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 0:01ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:01BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:06ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:06BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:30BUFSteve Montador: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:58BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:58ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:30BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:09ANACam Fowler: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:06ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:22BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:58BUFSteve Montador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against McCormick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Blake – Parros – Chipchura2:39
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:29
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Green – Lupul – Chipchura2:20
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marchant – Green – Lupul2:49
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sutton – Lilja4:36
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Fowler7:47
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler7:27
xG 0.24–0.63 (27%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Vanek – Ennis7:49
xG 1.01–0.06 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Stafford10:44
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick3:45
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Gaustad – McCormick2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador16:08
xG 1.31–0.27 (83%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Rivet – Weber9:51
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Sekera – Myers12:29
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).