Tue, Dec 21, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 09 | 113 | 127 |
| SJS | 05 | 217 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:15SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 16:43SJSDan BoylePPGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 18:01EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:18EDMZack Stortini: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:26EDMTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P2 7:19SJSNiclas Wallin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:07SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25EDMTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P2 14:48EDMRyan Whitney: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Stortini5:05
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Penner – Cogliano – Paajarvi3:04
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- O'Marra – Omark – Paajarvi6:26
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall15:37
xG 0.81–0.95 (46%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham12:55
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid2:34
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid10:03
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Heatley – Ferriero4:18
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture5:30
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Mayers – Clowe – Couture2:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Mitchell3:44
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic18:50
xG 1.35–0.53 (72%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Boyle – Wallin2:13
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wallin – Braun11:36
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).