Wed, Dec 22, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 011 | 15 | 125 |
| CHI | 113 | 113 | 29 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:29CHIDave BollandAssists: Fernando Pisani · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:28CHIJack SkillePPGWGAssists: Dave Bolland, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 9:14CHIJack SkilleAssists: Jake Dowell, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 11:13NSHSergei KostitsynPPAssists: Martin Erat, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 17:28CHIBryan BickellAssists: Jassen Cullimore · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:51NSHRyan Suter: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:58NSHShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 10:48CHITomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:48NSHJoel Ward: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:03CHIJassen Cullimore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist11:33
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Dumont – O'Reilly – Hornqvist2:04
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Wilson8:51
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Belak – Dumont – Spaling3:48
xG 0.01–0.06 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein15:12
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Franson10:17
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Weber20:16
xG 0.17–1.09 (13%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Brouwer – Toews16:39
xG 1.21–0.43 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Dowell – Skille11:15
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell14:13
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson18:57
xG 1.28–0.57 (69%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Cullimore – Boynton9:51
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:19
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).