Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 17 | 07 | 03 | 3 | 424 |
| NYR | 210 | 010 | 117 | 00 | 2 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00TBLMartin St. LouisUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 11:16NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Brian Boyle · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:28NYRAlex FrolovAssists: Artem Anisimov, Chris Drury · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P1 18:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 14:42TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Pavel Kubina, Brett Clark · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 11:18NYRDerek StepanAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Erik Christensen scored
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 3. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 4. TBL Adam Hall scored
- 5. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 6. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 7. NYR Artem Anisimov stopped
- 8. TBL Pavel Kubina stopped
- 9. NYR Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 10. TBL Simon Gagne stopped
- 11. NYR Brian Boyle stopped
- 12. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 13. NYR Michal Rozsival stopped
- 14. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 15. NYR Alex Frolov stopped
- 16. TBL Mattias Ritola stopped
- 17. NYR Chris Drury stopped
- 18. TBL Dominic Moore stopped
- 19. NYR Matt Gilroy stopped
- 20. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 21. NYR Marc Staal stopped
- 22. TBL Ryan Malone scored
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:25TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos12:00
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell11:53
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Moore – Ritola – Purcell8:35
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim10:32
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones12:33
xG 0.86–0.74 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Clark – Hedman15:56
xG 0.66–0.95 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Ohlund – Lundin18:18
xG 0.77–1.13 (41%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Stepan – Zuccarello14:25
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Drury – Frolov – Anisimov12:13
xG 1.17–0.91 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust14:34
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- White – Avery – Christensen7:12
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy12:08
xG 0.89–0.49 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Eminger19:24
xG 1.10–1.00 (53%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Staal – Girardi18:04
xG 0.82–0.73 (53%)attempts 21–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).