Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 2, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 114 | 19 | 07 | 230 |
| NSH | 010 | 19 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Peter Regin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:58OTTNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 7:16NSHMarcel GocAssists: Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:16NSHJerred Smithson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:43OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 19:12NSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:18NSHShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:09OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:24OTTJesse Winchester: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:23NSHShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 19:40OTTNick Foligno: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Shannon8:21
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:47
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Winchester6:48
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno7:52
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Lee6:36
xG 0.47–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson13:23
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Phillips – Lee3:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Hornqvist – Spaling4:24
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn4:32
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dumont – Goc – Hornqvist2:09
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Kostitsyn – Spaling2:08
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber13:14
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson9:30
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:29
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).