Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 29 | 05 | 427 |
| MIN | 04 | 05 | 18 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Johan Franzen · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:59DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:30DETKris DraperAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 13:50DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Backhand, 0.43 xG4–0
- P3 16:20MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:14MINChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:42DETTomas Holmstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:42MINMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:03DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:37MINMartin Havlat: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 9:46DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:27DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:45MINAndrew Brunette: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:33DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:53MINKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
- P3 11:42MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39DETKris Draper: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:43MINMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Cleary – Filppula9:52
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm7:21
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen8:24
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Miller – Abdelkader4:56
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Kindl7:06
xG 0.28–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart9:30
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl2:40
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – Miettinen – O'Sullivan2:52
xG 0.07–0.13 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew7:12
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak3:20
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck7:17
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Spurgeon7:26
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Scandella12:50
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Zanon – Zidlicky12:42
xG 0.26–0.66 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).