Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 26 | 06 | 221 |
| VAN | 07 | 112 | 214 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:20EDMRyan O'MarraAssists: Linus Omark · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 18:10EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 19:14VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Ryan Kesler, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:30VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Raffi Torres, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 19:36VANKevin BieksaGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:41VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:18VANDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P1 14:13EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:16EDMLinus Omark: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:49EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:49VANJannik Hansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:21VANManny Malhotra: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28EDMTheo Peckham: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Stortini2:24
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jones – O'Marra – Omark8:16
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
- Penner – Cogliano – Paajarvi12:49
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall14:37
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Foster – Smid9:23
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham11:30
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Smid – Peckham3:47
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:48
xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Hansen7:44
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti3:38
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres8:32
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler11:33
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard9:21
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa16:41
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).