Tue, Dec 28, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 215 | 05 | 114 | 334 |
| PIT | 211 | 116 | 39 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47ATLEvander KaneAssists: Bryan Little, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:34PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:18ATLDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:34PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:38PITCraig AdamsSHAssists: Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:09PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 13:00PITMark LetestuUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:16PITMatt CookeAssists: Sidney Crosby, Zbynek Michalek · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 16:51ATLEric BoultonAssists: Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:02ATLFreddy Modin: Interference2 min
- P1 10:10ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:44PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:29PITMatt Cooke: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:04PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:41ATLBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:41PITArron Asham: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:01PITBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:38ATLAnthony Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:34PITMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:20PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:19PITMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:57PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Kane – Burmistrov7:56
xG 0.98–0.67 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater8:09
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Stewart – Ladd – Peverley7:01
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Modin – Eager – Cormier9:02
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey9:25
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:44
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian12:18
xG 0.07–0.88 (7%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Conner – Letestu9:11
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby5:16
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby3:23
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin5:57
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek9:05
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy7:40
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Orpik – Letang11:41
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).