Tue, Dec 28, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 14 | 215 | 429 |
| TBL | 112 | 19 | 113 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:10TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brett Clark, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 3:27BOSSteven KampferAssists: Marc Savard, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:02TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Pavel Kubina · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 3:00BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Shawn Thornton, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 10:50TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 19:40BOSMark RecchiPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:20TBLSean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:20BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:20TBLSean Bergenheim: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:44BOSAdam McQuaid: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:31BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:20TBLSteven Stamkos: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:58TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 10:04BOSBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20TBLTeddy Purcell: Holding2 min
- P2 15:06BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:53BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P3 18:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:10TBLSean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Wheeler – Krejci12:43
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand7:51
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Seguin8:53
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Horton – Lucic8:41
xG 0.10–0.62 (13%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Ference – Seidenberg3:18
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference2:24
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos7:48
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell8:15
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim11:20
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Moore – Ritola – Purcell6:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Hedman2:43
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Kubina2:49
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Kubina – Smaby6:03
xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).