Tue, Dec 28, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 17 | 310 | 425 |
| NSH | 016 | 118 | 112 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:39DALSteve OttAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.40 xG1–0
- P2 19:00NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Sergei Kostitsyn · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 0:32NSHColin WilsonAssists: Joel Ward, Jerred Smithson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:44DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Jamie Benn, Karlis Skrastins · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 8:18DALMark FistricGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 10:05DALKrys BarchAssists: Brian Sutherby, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:09NSHWade Belak: Interference2 min
- P1 2:09NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:41DALJeff Woywitka: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26DALKrys Barch: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:53NSHJ-P Dumont: Interference2 min
- P2 1:47DALMark Fistric: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:36DALAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:36NSHShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:21DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P2 17:42NSHShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:42DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:42DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:29NSHKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:02DALJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:34NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Gagnon3:43
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Benn3:00
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:13
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Richards – Sutherby – Eriksson4:23
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen7:35
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Daley2:17
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Fistric11:37
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDumont – O'Reilly – Hornqvist10:08
xG 0.89–0.32 (74%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Wilson7:29
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Klasen9:37
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling2:58
xG 0.09–0.42 (17%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber14:10
xG 0.86–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson8:10
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Klein13:33
xG 0.61–1.05 (37%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).