Wed, Dec 29, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 112 | 19 | 326 |
| NJD | 116 | 020 | 08 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 7:18NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Brandon Prust · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 13:22NYRMichal RozsivalGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 19:54NYRBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:16NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min
- P2 3:49NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:15NJDTravis Zajac: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:39NJDDainius Zubrus: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:39NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:18NYRDerek Stepan: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:41NJDJason Arnott: Holding2 min
- P3 5:41NJDJason Arnott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:07NYRAlex Frolov: Holding2 min
- P3 16:03NYRChris Drury: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Sestito
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Prust – Anisimov2:22
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Stepan3:16
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Stepan – Zuccarello3:23
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Avery – Frolov – Christensen3:05
xG 0.01–0.09 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Eminger11:10
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Staal – Girardi14:53
xG 0.92–1.12 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Sauer – Gilroy11:51
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Tedenby9:11
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Zharkov5:53
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley7:57
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Elias8:40
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCorrente – Salmela3:09
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- White – Tallinder14:08
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Volchenkov – Salmela5:12
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).