Wed, Dec 29, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 112 | 19 | 431 |
| OTT | 08 | 011 | 018 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24CARZach BoychukGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Joe Corvo · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:12CARZach BoychukPPAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 15:14CARErik ColeUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 4:32CARPatrick DwyerUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:04CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:46OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10OTTRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:49OTTMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:25CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:35CARPatrick Dwyer: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:35OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:24OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:24CARRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:24OTTMilan Michalek: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:42CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Cole – Staal11:26
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Bodie – Matsumoto – Carter4:49
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Boychuk8:49
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner12:01
xG 0.11–0.82 (12%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Rodney2:45
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – White3:49
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason11:29
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Smith – Winchester8:46
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Michalek – Regin10:19
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly5:54
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno9:12
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Carkner9:51
xG 0.71–0.57 (56%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Campoli11:37
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner2:45
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).