Thu, Dec 30, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 111 | 111 | 332 |
| TOR | 212 | 03 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:19TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Darryl Boyce · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 16:46CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Jan Hejda, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:42TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 6:47CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Rick Nash, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 3:34CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:34CBJRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:59TORJoey Crabb: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyce won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Nash13:56
xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 26–11goals 2–0
- Moreau – Clark – Pahlsson11:36
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Murray – Wilson – Boll8:47
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dorsett – Brassard13:22
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Russell14:14
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Klesla – Methot15:53
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Hejda2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Boyce – Kulemin13:31
xG 0.57–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent5:16
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak12:44
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Armstrong – Mitchell – Versteeg12:48
xG 0.03–0.61 (4%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson10:13
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf19:33
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 18–29goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Schenn18:21
xG 0.14–0.67 (18%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).