Thu, Dec 30, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 414 | 15 | 728 |
| LAK | 210 | 216 | 010 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39LAKRyan SmythAssists: Rob Scuderi, Jarret Stoll · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:47PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Mike Richards, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:04LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 15:48PHIMike RichardsAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 4:05PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux, Darroll Powe · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 5:11PHIMike RichardsAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 8:11LAKJack JohnsonPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P2 11:00PHIJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–3
- P2 14:17PHIJames van RiemsdykPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–3
- P2 17:12LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.48 xG6–4
- P3 9:10PHIVille LeinoAssists: Jeff Carter, Andreas Nodl · Snap, 0.12 xG7–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 13:41PHINikolay Zherdev: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:11LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:48PHIMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08LAKDavis Drewiske: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43LAKRob Scuderi: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:00PHIMike Richards: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:35LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:15LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47PHIDaniel Brière: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:35PHIOskars Bartulis: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:13LAKKyle Clifford: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:49LAKKevin Westgarth: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Carter – Nodl – Leino10:19
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe6:11
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Zherdev – Giroux6:00
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Richards – van Riemsdyk11:11
xG 0.31–0.52 (38%)attempts 9–20goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Coburn11:06
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Carle – Meszaros14:22
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 9–21goals 2–0
- O'Donnell – Bartulis12:03
xG 0.11–0.45 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Brown – Kopitar11:40
xG 0.71–0.10 (88%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll9:55
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Richardson – Lewis – Westgarth3:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Simmonds4:04
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Doughty16:40
xG 1.01–0.57 (64%)attempts 29–14goals 0–2
- Scuderi – Greene9:33
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Martinez – Drewiske6:17
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).