Fri, Dec 31, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Atlanta Thrashers 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 07 | 09 | 113 | 129 |
| NJD | 110 | 113 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18NJDMark FayneAssists: Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:01NJDJamie LangenbrunnerGWGAssists: Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 12:14ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 13:40NJDIlya KovalchukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:47ATLRich Peverley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:08ATLEric Boulton: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:01ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01NJDMark Fayne: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:20NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P3 7:04NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Kane – Burmistrov2:34
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Stapleton – Little – Burmistrov5:17
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bergfors – Cormier – Kane4:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater4:58
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:29
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Oduya – Meyer14:08
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Meyer3:23
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Elias12:27
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley6:15
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Pelley2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Zharkov7:30
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Greene16:43
xG 0.84–0.32 (73%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Corrente – Salmela14:30
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne14:53
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).