Sat, Jan 1, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 6, Buffalo Sabres 7 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 411 | 013 | 211 | 05 | 2 | 640 |
| BUF | 316 | 214 | 15 | 00 | 3 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Adam McQuaid, Marc Savard · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 2:06BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 2:49BOSDennis SeidenbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 5:36BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 13:45BUFThomas VanekAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P1 14:15BOSZdeno CharaSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P1 19:19BUFDrew StaffordUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–3
- P2 6:17BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P2 17:43BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Jochen Hecht · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 3:08BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Daniel Paille · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 7:06BOSSteven KampferAssists: Tyler Seguin, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.17 xG6–5
- P3 19:32BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.13 xG6–6
Shootout
- 1. BUF Drew Stafford scored
- 2. BOS Michael Ryder scored
- 3. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 4. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 5. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 6. BOS Zdeno Chara stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:30BOSBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:56BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:56BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:01BOSMarc Savard: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:22BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:06BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:12BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:42BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Paille – Seguin9:20
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Horton – Wheeler – Krejci4:02
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand11:28
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Savard – Ryder – Lucic3:19
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk3:19
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Kampfer9:46
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Ference – Seidenberg2:40
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – Hecht – Stafford8:49
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick9:31
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek11:35
xG 0.62–0.71 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Weber13:24
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Sekera – Myers10:51
xG 0.74–0.86 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Rivet – Sekera3:34
xG 0.02–0.22 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).