Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 05 | 310 | 427 |
| STL | 212 | 011 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51STLDavid BackesAssists: Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 14:45DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 18:45STLAlexander SteenAssists: Eric Brewer, Matt D'Agostini · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:28DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Benn, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 6:32DALBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 17:10DALJames NealAssists: Toby Petersen, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:45STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:45DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:43STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:43DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:03STLChris Porter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49DALJeff Woywitka: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:54STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 19:37DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal14:38
xG 1.03–0.79 (57%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Ott – Burish – Wandell11:57
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Barch – Petersen – Segal2:51
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn11:37
xG 0.69–0.82 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Niskanen5:08
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Daley8:34
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen6:05
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Sobotka – D'Agostini13:13
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Boyes – McClement – Steen8:44
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Janssen – Porter – Cracknell2:50
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Steen – Berglund6:59
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo14:00
xG 1.41–0.87 (62%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Brewer – Polak15:56
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo3:06
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).