Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 05 | 07 | 120 |
| NSH | 07 | 311 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Marc Methot, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:59NSHShea WeberAssists: Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:51NSHNick SpalingGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–2
- P2 16:50NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–3
- P3 5:53NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Colin Wilson, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:02CBJChris Clark: Holding2 min
- P1 16:58NSHWade Belak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:57NSHDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:23NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12NSHCody Franson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:01CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Umberger – Brassard – Voracek11:57
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Moreau – Clark – Pahlsson8:30
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Dorsett10:09
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Nash8:12
xG 0.23–0.85 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Stralman10:51
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Hejda3:12
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot13:49
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling7:49
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Belak – Dumont – O'Reilly5:42
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Hornqvist – Wilson2:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:37
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein14:05
xG 0.85–0.31 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Franson12:31
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber15:08
xG 0.72–0.68 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).