Mon, Jan 3, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 313 | 19 | 14 | 526 |
| CGY | 19 | 119 | 015 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 8:29NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 11:37CGYDavid MossAssists: Adam Pardy, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 13:25NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 3:06NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Travis Hamonic, Matt Martin · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 13:22CGYDavid MossAssists: Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–2
- P3 18:54NYIMichael GrabnerENAssists: Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:25CGYTim Jackman: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 9:15NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:15CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:16CGYAdam Pardy: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:26NYIDylan Reese: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:20NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey10:03
xG 0.76–0.32 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:11
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Konopka – Grabner – Martin2:53
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Sim – Schremp – Joensuu10:43
xG 0.10–0.66 (13%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gervais – Hillen12:51
xG 0.87–0.88 (50%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Reese – Hillen4:11
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:16
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Moss8:35
xG 1.15–0.10 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Kotalik – Hagman – Stajan9:32
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Morrison – Glencross – Bourque10:09
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay14:43
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Pardy13:20
xG 1.00–0.10 (91%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester12:17
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Sarich – Regehr2:35
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).