Tue, Jan 4, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 04 | 16 | 218 |
| NJD | 01 | 114 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:38MINCal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:07NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Travis Zajac, Nick Palmieri · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:14MINClayton StonerGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:54NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:54MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:54MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:50MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 7:50NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:50MINGreg Zanon: Diving2 min
- P3 11:18MINMartin Havlat: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sestito won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Koivu – Kobasew10:21
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck6:30
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak6:35
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz3:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns15:05
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Barker – Spurgeon14:48
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zanon – Stoner19:55
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri6:59
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley10:35
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Arnott – Mair – Zharkov4:37
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Palmieri3:17
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fraser5:59
xG 0.11–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Greene2:33
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – Greene4:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).