Tue, Jan 4, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 010 | 220 | 02 | 340 |
| COL | 29 | 08 | 111 | 16 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:16COLDaniel WinnikAssists: TJ Galiardi, Peter Budaj · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:49BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 16:03COLRyan O'ReillySHAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:28BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:31BUFSteve MontadorAssists: Drew Stafford, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 6:02COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 4:17COLDavid JonesPPGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:02BUFAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:06BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
- P1 14:37COLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:20BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25COLTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:06COLBrandon Yip: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:43BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:47COLDaniel Winnik: Holding2 min
- P2 15:41BUFDrew Stafford: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:39COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:11COLAdam Foote: Interference2 min
- OT 0:47COLMilan Hejduk: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:32BUFTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Galiardi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Stafford – Ennis6:21
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad6:14
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek9:29
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Hecht – Stafford2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador11:16
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Morrisonn – Weber11:09
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Sekera – Myers9:06
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Winnik – Galiardi3:12
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene10:11
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly2:23
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Jones – Winnik – O'Reilly2:29
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hunwick2:16
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Foote – Hunwick2:12
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Shattenkirk4:48
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).