Wed, Jan 5, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 111 | 28 | 424 |
| ANA | 015 | 013 | 113 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Nick Spaling · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:56NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 11:46ANASaku KoivuAssists: Dan Sexton, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:08NSHSergei KostitsynENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
- P3 19:59NSHShea WeberENUnassisted · Slap, 0.38 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:23NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:59NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:08ANAAndreas Lilja: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:34ANAAndy Sutton: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:56NSHDavid Legwand: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:13NSHPekka Rinne: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40NSHChris Mueller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling9:54
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Legwand – Svatos – Wilson8:33
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Dumont – Legwand – Mueller2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist11:58
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson11:14
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber18:07
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein14:29
xG 0.22–0.67 (25%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Lapierre – Ryan5:23
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – McMillan9:22
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura4:12
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marchant – Lupul – McMillan2:44
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky15:10
xG 1.14–0.37 (75%)attempts 26–5goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:05
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Fowler2:30
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).